Peter Thiel Interview: US Stagnation in Science
Since the 1960s, the United States has experienced a scientific stagnation in medicine, transportation, space technology and harnessing atoms—at least according to Peter Thiel.
You can find the full interview here.
About Peter Thiel: He is a Billionaire tech investor and cofounder of PayPal. He was also an early investor in Facebook, Stripe, AirBNB, SpaceX and Palantir (to name a few). Outside of investing, he’s known for contrarian takes on US technological progress, college admissions, higher education and certain frameworks for globalization & free-trade.
Outline
On Medicine
Thiel points out that Nixon officially launched “The War on Cancer” in 1971, hoping to eradicate the disease by decades end. Nixon seemingly envisioned that the society which first split the atom and planted flags on the moon could quickly triumph over cancer.
However, game-changing innovations for cancer treatments would remain elusive in the second half of the 20th century. Forty years after Nixon’s “war” began, the same trio of cancer treatments then (chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery) still remained the primary treatment options. And a similar case could be made for Alzheimer’s.
Yet things may be looking up for cancer treatments. In 2011, the first immunotherapy drug for cancer received the FDA’s blessing. This was a fundamentally new treatment method (as opposed to incremental advancements), which added an entirely new fourth pillar in the fight against cancer.
On Travel
Transit times for car, bus, and plane travel have failed to make material strides in the past 70 years. As a society, the United States still gives up the same time to commuting (driving and flying) as we did in the 1960s, when we might otherwise spend time and energy elsewhere.
Thiel notes the illustrative story of the supersonic Concorde jet, which was prematurely retired in 2003. The Concorde — 1,000+ MPH or double traditional commercial planes— innovated travel in the sky for a brief moment —1969 to 2003. During operations, it cut flight times across the Atlantic in half (But the Pacific seems an even better place for them).
On Space
Thiel points out that in the 1960s, the citizens looked forward to vacations on the moon. In the heat of the Cold War, it seemed as if those innovations could be close. James Bond villains from this era had lunar operations.
And yet, the United States seemingly regressed in space travel. By 2011, the US was left relying on their former Cold-War adversaries to ferry astronauts to space.
But a bit of good news for space tech, 2020 marked the year SpaceX sent US astronauts back into space. This end a decade of reliance on Russian rockets and goodwill. 50 years after the moon landing, SpaceX, and their less costly reusable rocket technology, resumed US-based space flights. Astronauts from the US could now hitch rides into space with US technology—again—perhaps putting cracks in the great stagnation.
On Nuclear
Peter Thiel notes there has been minimal improvement in leveraging the power that comes from atoms. This followed the enormous strides achieved in the first half of the 20th century.
For whatever reason, the world seemed to have turned its back on nuclear energy since the 1970s, despite atoms absurd energy output and potential. Many nuclear plants in service today are made from 1970s tech.
However, today France is construction a fusion nuclear powered plant with a global consortium (ITER). Further, Bill Gate’s sponsored Terrapower, which reduces meltdown risks (compared to prior gens) and also recycles leftover “nuclear waste” to generate power. Small modular reactors, which can be partially built in factories, are also on the horizon. Thus, there is near-term hope in atoms.
On Innovations in Bits, Not Atoms
Hardware and software industries have seen massive innovations since the 1960s, and Thiel recognizes these massive improvement. Though over the last 60 years, perhaps a disproportionate number the best and brightest minds in the United Stated have been sucked into the fields of software and hardware (finance too).
For example:
Max Levchin (Born to physicists -> Payments—PayPal, Affirm)
Collison Brothers (Born to microbiologist & engineer -> Payments—Stripe)
Paul Graham (Born to physicist -> Programmer, VC, Tech Entrepeneur)
Sergey Brin (Born to mathematicians-> Google founder)
But perhaps this was just where the opportunity was. Nonetheless, developments in software and hardware have potentially redirected a fraction of top talent from otherwise heading to fields like space, medicine, travel, and nuclear—so the thinking goes.
Economist (and much, much more) Tyler Cowen offers one potential solution here: Society should confer even more status to scientist and researchers who work on cancer, atoms, transportation and space. Compensation alone, as things stands now, may not be enough.
Author’s Note
You can find more on Thiel’s arguments in his book Zero to One.
An aside for readers who have journeyed this far, Peter M. Robinson (the interviewer) wrote the famous line “Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall.”